Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Capital Appreciation in three years (2004-2007)

Just recently found some materials that was used for a talk three years ago in 2004. It is interesting to note how much the stock prices gained since then.

Jollibee Food Corp (JFC)
No. of shares 982 mn
Mkt. Cap PhP 19 bn
Book Value 7.64
EPS 0.93
Computed PE 21X
2003 dividends
------PhP 0.20 Nov 19
------PhP 0.15 May 14

Price (Feb 27, 2004)------------------Price (Feb 27, 2007)
PhP 19.00------------------------------PhP 55.50

Ginebra San Miguel Inc. (GSMI)
No. of shares 268 mn
Mkt. Cap PhP 8 bn
Book Value 28.39
EPS 4.65
Computed PE 7X
Dividends
------PhP 0.375/quarter or
PhP 1.50/year
4.8% dividend yield

Price (Feb 27, 2004)-----------------Price (Feb 27, 2007)
PhP 31.50-----------------------------PhP 26.00

Petron Corp. (PCOR)
No. of shares 9 bn
Mkt. Cap PhP 28 bn
Book Value 2.02
EPS 0.21
Computed PE 15X
2003 dividend
------PhP 0.20 May 26
2002 dividend
------PhP 0.15 June 03

Price (Feb 27, 2004)-----------------Price (Feb 27, 2007)
PhP 3.15-------------------------------PhP 4.80

SM Prime Holdings (SMPH)
No. of shares 9.9 bn
Mkt. Cap PhP 60 bn
Book Value 3.34
EPS 0.31
Computed PE 20X
Targetting 8-10% annual income growth rate

Price (Feb 27, 2004)-----------------Price (Feb 27, 2007)
PhP 6.10-------------------------------PhP 12.50

Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. (MBT)
No. of shares 1.6 bn
Mkt. Cap PhP 41 bn
Book Value 33.18
EPS 1.45
Computed PE 17.6X
Dividends
------PhP 0.40 Jan 27, 2004

Price (Feb 27, 2004)-----------------Price (Feb 27, 2007)
PhP 25.00-----------------------------PhP 67.00

Meralco (MER/MERB)
Book Value 43.50
Issues: refund to customers/pending rate hike

Price (Feb 27, 2004)-----------------Price (Feb 27, 2007)
MER PhP 19.50-----------------------PhP 77.50
MERB PhP 32.00---------------------PhP 78.50

Ever Gotesco (EVER)
No. of shares 5 bn
Mkt. Cap PhP 85 mn
Book Value 0.68
EPS 0.001

Price (Feb 11, 2004)-----------------Price (Feb 27, 2007)
PhP 0.017-----------------------------PhP 0.0875

Pilipino Telephone Corporation (PLTL)

Price (Feb 11, 2004)-----------------Price (Feb 27, 2007)
PhP 1.56-----------------------------PhP 7.40


For data and information; references were Technistock Corp., the PSE and Newspaper articles.

Sunday, February 25, 2007

EQUITY VALUATION

METHODS OF ANALYZING INVESTMENTS

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS – involves the use of traditional economic and business concepts in the examination of economic and company variables that leads to an estimation of the value of an investment
- the analysis of the determinants of value such
as price earnings ( the analysis of these variables is called the valuation process )

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, past prices and volume.




Two approaches to the valuation process

TOP-DOWN APPROACH – begins with an assessment of the economy and the financial markets. This is followed by an analysis of different industries and how they are affected (favorably or adversely) by prevailing economic and market conditions. Finally individual companies within each industry are identified and analyzed.

BOTTOM-UP APPROACH – is more concerned with the analysis, selection, and pricing of securities. This entails a detailed examination of companies and an appraisal value of their securities (whether they are underpriced, overpriced or fairly priced). Industry and economic factors are mere secondary considerations


THE TOP DOWN APPROACH

----------------------Macro economic analysis

Global Economy
--------export prospects
--------price competition
--------profits on overseas investments
--------political risks
Broad economic environment
--------Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
--------Unemployment rate
--------Inflation.
--------Deflation
--------Interest Rates.
--------Budget
--------Sentiment
Government macro economic policy
--------Fiscal Policy
--------Monetary Policy
--------Supply Side Policies
Business cycles

----------------------Industry Analysis

Life Industry Cycles

Start-up stage
Consolidation Stage
Maturity Stage
Relative Decline


Industry Structure and Performance

Rivalry Between Existing Competitors
Pressure from Substitute Products
Bargaining Power of Buyers
Bargaining Power of Suppliers


-----------------------Firm specific analysis

FINANCIAL RATIOS
FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS

Thursday, February 22, 2007

First Quarter 2005 Dividends (for comparison)

CASH DIVIDENDS

3-Jan-05 CENTRO ESCOLAR UNIVERSITY (CEU)------ Php 0.10
4-Jan-05 AYALA CORPORATION (AC) -----Php 0.04
5-Jan-05 FAR EASTERN UNIVERSITY (FEU) -----Php 10.00
7-Jan-05 PHIL. TOBACCO FLUE-CURING AND REDRYING CORP. (TFC) -----Php 0.05
12-Jan-05 BANK OF THE PHIL. ISLANDS (BPI) -----Php 0.80
14-Jan-05 RIZAL COMM. BANKING CORP. (RCB) -----Php 0.30
27-Jan-05 PCI LEASING AND FINANCE INC. (PCIL) -----Php 0.20
31-Jan-05 METROPOLITAN BANK AND TRUST CO. (MBT)----- Php 0.40
31-Jan-05 TANDUAY HOLDINGS INC. (TDY) ------Php 0.10
15-Feb-05 GINEBRA SAN MIGUEL (GSMI) ------Php 0.375
15-Feb-05 GLOBE TELECOM INC. (GLO) ------Php 20.00
17-Feb-05 MANULIFE FINANCIAL CORP. (MFC)----- Can $ 0.26

18-Feb-05 SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC. (SLF)------ Can $ 0.24
23-Feb-05 PHIL STOCK EXCHANGE (PSE) ------Php 5.00
24-Feb-05 ABOITIZ EQUITY VENTURES (AEV)----- Php 0.12
2-Mar-05 ALASKA MILK CORP. (AMC)----- Php 0.075
7-Mar-05 CENTRO ESCOLAR UNIVERSITY (CEU)----- Php 0.10
9-Mar-05 AYALA LAND INC. (ALI) ------Php 0.10
11-Mar-05 PHIL. SAVINGS BANK (PSB) -----Php 0.20
21-Mar-05 EDSA PROP. HOLDINGS (EPHI) ------Php 0.022
23-Mar-05 TRANS-ASIA OIL AND ENERGY DEV. COR (TA)------ Php 0.08
28-Mar-05 BACNOTAN CONSOLIDATED IND. INC. (BCI)------ Php 9.00
28-Mar-05 FIRST METRO INVESTMENT CORP.(FMIC) ------Php 7.95



STOCK DIVIDEND
18-Mar-05 PCI LEASING AND FINANCE INC. (PCIL) ------120%

Monday, February 19, 2007

First Quarter 2007 Dividends

----------------------------------Ex div-------------Record---------Date
Symbol-----------Value---------date-----------date-----------payable

BPI cash----PhP1.00/share---20dec2006-----27dec2006----11jan2007
-------------(special)
BPI cash----PhP0.90/share---20dec2006-----27dec2006----11jan2007
-------------(regular)

MBT cash----PhP0.60/share---22dec2006-----29dec2006----20jan2007

RCB cash----PhP0.30/share---01feb2007-----06feb2007----07feb2007

GLO cash----PhP33.00/share--14feb2007-----19feb2007----15mar2007

MER cash----PhP1.00/share---05jan2007-----10jan2007----05feb2007

AMC cash----PhP0.05/share---01mar2007-----06mar2007----30mar2007


AC cash----PhP2.00/share----02jan2007-----05jan2007----30jan2007

AEV cash----PhP0.20/share---06feb2007-----09feb2007----23feb2007

BRN cash----PhP0.05/share---10jan2007-----15jan2007----08feb2007

FEU cash----PhP15.00/share---02jan2007----05jan2007----15jan2007

ALI cash----PhP0.03/share---11dec2006-----14dec2006----04jan2007

FLI stock-------25%-----------02jan2007-----05jan2007----19jan2007

MBC cash----PhP0.0625/shr---05jan2007-----10jan2007----31jan2007

PEC cash----PhP0.05/share---28dec2006-----03jan2007----29jan2007

BDO cash----PhP0.80/share---17jan2007-----22jan2007----08feb2007

PSE cash----PhP6.00/share---26feb2007-----01mar2007----15mar2007
-------------(regular)

PSE cash----PhP2.80/share---26feb2007-----01mar2007----15mar2007
-------------(special)

PERC cash---PhP0.20/share---16feb2007-----21feb2007----16mar2007

MWC cash----PhP0.15/share---26feb2007-----01mar2007----22mar2007



A list of some of the dividends announced for the first quarter of 2007. You may check out the daily newspapers for further updates.
To be able to avail of the dividends, you should be a stockholder before the ex-dividend date.

Friday, February 16, 2007

EQUITY , STOCKS and the STOCK MARKET

Equity - is simply ownership of a corporation

Stock- ownership units in a corporation

Market - is a mechanism that bring together buyers and sellers to aid in the transfer of goods and services

Stock market - the market for various equity securities such as stocks and warrants


In essence, when you buy stocks in the Philippine Stock Exchange, you are buying part ownership in the company. Notice, the stock market listings in the business pages of the newspapers, they are companies you are somehow familiar with. We come across the names of companies like PLDT, GLOBE, MERALCO, JOLLIBEE etc everyday.

The stock that you buy is only as good as the company that issued them. The Key is to know what company you are buying into.


How to earn in the Stock Market

Dividends: Cash or Stock

Capital Appreciation

When a company makes money, and is efficient in controlling its expenses, they make profits. And a shareholder, your share comes in the form of dividends. The bigger the profits, the bigger the dividends (though each company formulates its own dividend policy).

When investing in the stock market with the objective of getting returns by Capital Appreciation (the increase in stock prices as they are traded in the stock market); it is important to keep in mind that just like in any other market; the Equities market is governed by the "LAW of SUPPLY and DEMAND". When Demands exceeds supply, the prices go up; and when supply overwhelms demand, prices tend to go down.
What factors affect the demand and supply? Thats what we try to find out.

****Dominant market players in an industry and Companies that delivers profit consistently are sought after and much more in demand especially by foreign investors. Hence, most of them are expensive or priced higher.
They are the blue chip companies.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Starting on Investing

Investing is the foregoing of present benefits in order to be able to enjoy the returns in the future.
Don't spend that money now, Invest it.

Investing is sometimes equated with Savings. But savings is a passive use of money where funds are parked somewhere (usually in a savings account). Most likely, inflation just eats up interest earned on it.

While both are higly encouraged, (but sad to say hard and not likely to bve practiced); active investing can make money work for you by multiplyng your efforts.
Investing is being proactive and knowing/learning where your money works and how much it earns.

But as they say, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. We hope that you go out and build up your savings and start investing. Through our blogs we would try help out in anyway (especially through investor education) for you to understand investing .


BASIC RULE of INVESTING:

"Risk - Reward" Trade-off

Less Risk, Less Opportunity for Gain
The More Risk assumed, the greater the Potential Return.

This should be the guiding principle in your investing activities. Your decision on where to put your money should be based on this.


And before you start to invest, you should know yourself first.

Identify your investment or savings need.

Objective: Where will you use your funds?
Time frame: When do you need your funds?
Risk tolerance: Are you an aggressive or conservative investor?

At this point, you should identify the risk that you can afford and the risk you can take. Can you afford to take a loss in the hope of making bigger gains? or do you have a heart condition that may make big market movements intolerable?


Next, know where you can invest.

COMMON SAVINGS and INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS
Time Deposit
Special Deposit
Government Securities
Commercial Papers
STOCKS



Key Investment Principles

Identifying objectives and time frame
---------------Short term
---------------------------Monthly bills, operational expenses
---------------------------Funds needed within one year
---------------Medium term
---------------------------Upgrade of equipment or appliance
---------------------------Purchase of automobile
---------------------------Funds needed within 3-5 years
---------------Long term
---------------------------Retirement/Provident Funds
---------------------------Funds needed 5 years or longer


Match objectives with investment plan.

Do not put long term funds in short term investments.
---------------Short term- Bank deposits, money market
---------------Medium to Long term - Stocks, bonds or mutual funds

Match investment plan with risk tolerance
---------------Conservative - Fixed income and bonds
---------------Moderate - Combination of bonds and equities
---------------Aggressive - equities and foreign currencies